Using publicly available poll data to get voter probabilities, run simulations of the US election in each of the 50 states, and use the results of the simulation to forecast probabilities for a Democratic/Republican win in the 2012 election.
To use the model, run master in Matlab. Sample output (4th November 2012)
EDU>> master
Simulating: Alabama
Simulating: Alaska
.
. (etc)
.
Simulating: Wisconsin
Simulating: Wyoming
Results:
P(Dem win) = 99.46%
P(GOP win) = 0.49%
P(Tie) = 0.06%