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Using monthly revenue data from 2015 and 2016, I was able to build a model that captures the seasonality as well as the observed year-over-year growth. Using the learned model parameters, I can forecast the monthly performance. This forecast can be used as a key indicator to track business performance.
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A demographic study of the annual subscribers in 2015 and 2016 reveals that female customers of age 35 years and up are a very promising customer segment for growth. This customer segment is underrepresented when compared to their younger peers, but showed increased growth from 2015 to 2016. Harnessing this growth momentum could yield an additional 4,300 annual customers, equaling a boost of revenue on the order of 700,000 USD.
(Full report available here).
Annual customers drive the majority of the operational revenue and most of the growth.
Significant deviations from the expected sales allow timely action to increase sales volume (e.g., marketing campaigns) or adjust growth expectations.
Drop in engagement for female subscribers of 35 to 55 years of age as compared to their younger peers.
Growth in engagement among women 35 to 55 years of age was stronger from 2015 to 2016 than for their male peers.
Action
Harness the momentum seen for women at ages 35 to 55 and grow this cohort towards the level seen for their younger peers.
Potential:
Assuming that engagement among women at ages 35 to 55 can be increased to the same engagement profile as for their male peers (i.e., filling in the missing shoulder on the engagement histogram shown above), an additional 4,300 annual subscribers would be gained, translating into an increase in revenue on the order of $700,000 USD.